Environmental Scan

The Strategic Planning Process starts with an Environmental Scan. The Scan is an analysis of an organization’s internal and external environments whose purpose is to inform the formulation of the Strategic Plan by detecting early signs of opportunities and threats that might influence current and future plans. Careful attention to the Environmental Scan is indicative of the organizational commitment to data-driven decision-making. It completes the ultimate feedback loop, where organizational direction from the BCC is not set until market information, customer input, performance data, and all other inputs are considered.

The Environmental Scan is updated each year to detect any new or emerging advantages or challenges that need to be addressed. The following information outlines the market conditions and trends used to guide the formation of the Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 Annual Budget.

As discussed in the previous year’s economic forecast, the threat of high inflation loomed over the budget process since high inflationary pressures would cause the County’s expenses to rise inordinately. As shown on the chart below, the national inflation rate has dropped sharply over the past 18 months. Although the consumer price index for the Tampa MSA has dropped significantly over the past 18 month, it remains nearly twice as high as the national rate.

Not long ago, prognosticators were predicting the unemployment rate would need to rise sharply to bring inflation down. Traditionally economic theory postulated an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation. For example, when more people are employed (i.e., low unemployment) more people are working so have the money to spend which leads to an increase in demand. As we know, more money chasing fewer goods leads to price inflation.

How then can we explain the simultaneous decline in unemployment rate and inflation. The short answer is worker productivity. The big money answer recently provided by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggests inflation may continue to decline in the middle of continued economic growth “through improvements in the economy’s capacity” rather than the traditional tool of “destroying demand” through higher interest rates.

The Labor Department reported (November 3, 2023), “Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 4.7 percent in the third quarter of 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today … as output increased 5.9 percent and hours worked increased 1.1 percent.” Moreover, the report found, “The increase in labor productivity is the highest rate since the third quarter of 2020, in which productivity increased 5.7 percent. From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023.” The report found the economy is not experiencing wage inflation, as many expected, but instead “unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector decreased 0.8 percent in the third quarter of 2023, reflecting a 3.9-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 4.7-percent increase in productivity.”

As Karl W. Smith observed at Bloomberg: “Rising labor productivity means the economy can create more stuff with the same number of workers, working the same number of hours. That’s crucial because getting inflation back under control requires either businesses to increase the supply of goods and services or consumers to decrease their demand.” In this case, business has increased supply, allowing consumers to buy more. That boosted the consumer spending number, critical to the U.S. economy’s performance.

In its first year, the Inflation Reduction Act drove the private sector to invest more than $110 billion in green energy. The federal government has also spurred American businesses in overall investment. A recent Treasury Department report found: “By June, real construction of manufacturing facilities had more than doubled since 2021, mainly reflecting new factories in the technology sector.” It should not be surprising, then, that the economic recovery in the United States has been stronger and quicker than in other countries.

National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard explains Fed Chair Powell’s “improvements in the economy’s capacity” comment by saying “the historic trifecta of the bipartisan infrastructure law, the Chips and Science Act and the clean-energy portions of the Inflation Reduction Act [that] are boosting the supply side of our economy by catalyzing private sector investments in infrastructure, clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing.” By combining enhanced worker training with government and private-sector investment, she explained, the administration hopes to maintain the manufacturing boom and growth in other sectors.”

Housing demand in the regional market is expected to remain strong. The area’s extraordinary population growth is driving the demand while the historic low unemployment is making it difficult to hire the workers needed to build the housing stock fast enough to meet that demand. Therefore, expect an increase in home prices as well as rent over the forecast period. The FAA reports the state will need to add nearly 700,000 apartment units by the year 2030 just to keep up with demand; this does not even consider the replacement of aging apartment stock. The median rent price for a two bedroom apartment in 2023 in Pasco County is $1,891; Hernando County $1,675; Hillsborough $1,920; and Pinellas $1,910. The median sale price for a single family home in Pasco County in September 2023 was $354,047. In Tampa Bay, the median listing home price was $474,900, trending up 7.9% year-over-year.

Overall, 78% of responding residents rated Pasco County as an Excellent or Good Place to Live, these results remained the same from last year. Of the responding residents, 70% believe the overall quality of life in Pasco County is excellent or good.

Feeling safe in the community is a high priority for residents and it is an aspect of community livability. 92% of respondents reported feeling safe in their neighborhoods and in Pasco County's downtown/commercial area during the day. Residents also noted that the overall feeling of safety was essential or very important for the community to focus on in the future.

While residents enjoy the county's parks and recreational opportunities, Pasco County's environment received lower scores than the benchmarked communities. The overall quality of the natural environment and cleanliness are among top areas where the county can grow and improve in the future.

Our ratings for overall governance have remained stable in most categories compared to prior years. The percentage of citizens who felt the county's customer service was excellent or good increased to 78% in 2021; the percent who felt public information services were excellent or good decreased by 4% from 2020 to 59% in 2021; and the percent who felt the county treats all residents fairly fell to 56% in 2021, which is a 7% change from 2020.

The Pasco County Information Technology Department (IT) effectively bridges public safety, public services, land management, public infrastructure, transportation, administration, and Court-related agencies with a consistent and sustainable technology foundation.

In the coming year, Pasco County will be challenged with anywhere devices related to security and transparency. Because of the growing use of public networks in the delivery of IT services, the security challenge of protecting our internal network from the unintended consequences of the public network is increasing both in scope and importance. The need to constantly improve the County’s security perimeter for zero-day attacks is paramount. The increased use of video and social media in government settings for collaboration purposes will continue to increase as digital democracy initiatives develop and become common place.

The Department is constantly challenged with employee retention, due to competitive salaries, remote working benefits, and the ongoing need for current technology skill sets with neighboring counties and cities (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, and Manatee Counties, and the City of Tampa). The gap has been closing due to planned regional pay scale studies combined with various small-scale increases.

The County’s technology direction involves the combination of cloud computing, on-premises, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Business Intelligence (BI) initiatives. By moving our office productivity suite into the cloud, it enables any place, anytime, anywhere connectivity. The Information Technology Department has invested in an AI solution that is “Best-in-Class”, full stack observability solution that extends across our entire IT infrastructure. From application and infrastructure monitoring to digital experience and application security we are leveraging data-driven AI at its core to monitor our operations, predicate problems, automate resolution, and to help secure all of our on-premises and cloud platforms and technologies. This helps us to innovate faster, with higher quality and less risk, operate efficiently and proactively, and to drive better business outcomes for our employees and citizens.

The following issues may affect our ability to provide the level and type of service our customers expect:

Community Redevelopment Areas (CRAs)

The County contributes nearly $2 Million per year to the County’s four CRAs (i.e., Port Richey, New Port Richey, Dade City, and Zephyrhills), yet the County has no voice in how those funds are expended. The County supports initiatives that more clearly define acceptable CRA expenditures; broader representation on CRA Boards; and allow the County a greater say in the oversight of CRA’s within its jurisdiction.

Cybersecurity

Cyberattacks have become a serious problem for all sectors of the economy. These silent attacks injure not just the organization being targeted but hurts all consumers as well. For example, the May cyberattack on Colonial Pipeline forced the company to shut off gasoline supply to much of the east coast, resulting in severe shortages. Closer to home in Oldsmar, Florida, hackers accessed a water-treatment plant briefly raising the lye in drinking water to dangerous levels. Broward County Schools was targeted by the Conti ransomware gang that caused a shutdown of its computer system making it impossible to carry on teaching for a considerable time. As the United States emerges from the coronavirus lockdown, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has made cybersecurity a national-security priority. As more businesses grow and evolve to be increasingly reliant on digital infrastructure, they may be forced to pay ransoms; however, a recent state law prohibits local governments from paying ransomware.

Inmate Healthcare Costs

With medical inflation continuing to creep ever higher, the County is seeking to amend state law to cap medical costs of an arrestee, pretrial detainee, or sentenced inmate to 110 percent of the Medicare allowable rate if no formal written agreement exists between the county and the third-party medical care provider. This is the same cap that exists for the State’s corrections system.

Code Enforcement Anonymous Complaints

The County’s Code Enforcement Division contributes to Pasco's quality of life and property values by enforcing the County codes, to promote, protect and improve the health, safety and welfare of the citizens and visitors of Pasco County. Given the size of the County, Code Officers rely on citizen complaints to ferret out the most egregious code violations, however, during the 2022 Legislative Session state law was modified to prohibit code compliance officers from initiating a code compliance action based on an anonymous complaint. The inability to make anonymous complaints ahs a chilling effect on reporting violations, therefore, the County would like to see this repealed.

In general, the County is concerned about legislation that will weaken its home rule authority or impose mandates without a corresponding funding source. The following issues reflect legislative challenges that require attention and clear direction to staff through the Strategic and Business Plans.

Conversion of Private Wells and Septic Tanks

The County seeks recurring state and federal funding for conversion programs designed to move private wells to potable drinking water and moving private septic tanks to public wastewater collection systems. In addition, the County is seeking greater flexibility for programs that address the costs incurred by residents connecting to public sewer as well as the proper abandonment of septic systems.

CR579/Prospect Road/Happy Hill Road Improvement Design Phase - $1,500,000

The design phase for this project will include the widening of Prospect Road, from Williams Cemetery Road to SR 52, to four lanes with a 7-foot bike lane, a 6-foot sidewalk, and a roundabout at SR 52 at Prospect & Happy Hill.

Anclote River Park Boat Ramps and Parking - $2,900,000

Pasco County seeks to add two boat ramps and 100 parking spaces at Anclote River Park in Holiday, including sufficient boat trailer parking, to bring the county boat ramp total from eight to 10. This will increase overall boating access in the county by 25%.

Mitchell Park Renovation - $4,2000,000

The project will correct underlying stormwater drainage to ensure all areas remain accessible in all weather conditions. The Park will also receive additional parking, a concession stand/restroom building, three diamond playing fields, and five rectangular playing fields.

Stop Expanding the Use of Tourist Development Taxes

The County opposes any legislation that would expand the use of Tourist Development Taxes beyond those uses outside of tourism marketing activities.