Aeronautics Revenue Update
January revenue came in at $1.6M. Total revenue for the year is at $10.9M.
With it being the end of Q3 we are updating our FY21 revenue forecast from $14.5M to $17M, based on latest flow trends at DEN and increasing jet fuel prices. This will be our final adjustment to our FY21 revenue forecast.
Monthly Revenue Breakdown
Total revenue for March came in at $1.6M which was 124.9% of forecast ($1.3M). In comparison. this is 90% of the $1.8M of revenue for March 2020, and 105.8% of February revenue. For April, we are forecasting $1.6M in revenue.
Of note we will begin referencing 2019 numbers as well to give an idea of what a "normal" cycle would look like as we get into the months when Covid was fully impacting the aviation industry in 2020. March 2021 revenue was 73% of March 2019's $2.2M in revenue.
Our revenue continues to be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. For forecasting to date we have transitioned to forecasting a 25% decreases to 2019 numbers (Using 2020 numbers is not useful as that was the start of the pandemic, and therefore the numbers are not helpful for prognosticating). This methodology will continue to be revised based on latest fuel flowage data from Denver International Airport and the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Aeronautics Cash Balance
Monthly Close Balance
Fund 160 balance finished March at $9.5M, up $182K from $9.3M at the end of February.
Next Month Projected Close Balance
April month end balance is projected to decrease to near $9.2M.
The increase outpaced our projected balance of $9.1M due to a combination of factors,, primarily vendors at DEN catching up on past filings, as well as the increase to oil/jet fuel prices we are seeing in the market outpacing our conservative prognostigations.
Tax Disbursements By Month
Tax Disbursement Information
The Division sent out disbursements of $1.0M in March
Sales Taxes - $873K
Excise (AvJet) - $129K
Excise (AvGas) - $8K
Tax disbursements followed the normal cycle of being 1 month behind revenues.
As approved by the CAB at the August 2020 Board Meeting, we have set our 2021 CDAG Program at $3.25M.
As we forecast future revenues and expenditures, and combine that with our conservative approach to future revenues, we see that our previous 2020 CDAG Program of $6.7M is secure financially, as is our planned 2021 Program of $3.25M.
Of note, we have now plugged in preliminary numbers for increasing CDAG programs in 2022 and forward. 2022's CDAG program will be approved by the CAB at our August 2021 workshop.
The Division maintains an indexed, risk-based contingency fund balance (within the Division’s fund 160) that will allow the Division’s current obligations and subsequent year discretionary aviation grant (CDAG) and statewide initiative commitments to be met in the event of a prolonged worst-case reduction in aviation fuel tax revenues ($40/bbl. oil price and a reduction in DEN fuel flowage to 35 million gallons per month average for more than 12 consecutive months).
Current levels are near $60/bbl and 24M gallons per month. Oil prices are well above our wost case scenario, though flowage at DEN continues to fall behind, though Covid-19 is something that never could have been planned for, nor should it be forecast in a responsible budget or forecast model.
The positive news remains however, despite our depressed revenues, because of our contingency model and fiscal disciplines, our cash balance remains healthy, and we are poised to react quickly as the industry comes out of Covid restrictions.
Aeronautics Administrative Expenses
State statute mandates that our administrative expenses cannot exceed 5% of the previous fiscal year's gross revenue.
FY21 state mandated 5% cap of FY20 revenue is $1.32M
FY21 Administration budget approved by the CAB in January 2020 is $1.28M.
Currently we have expended $754K on administration in FY21. We are projecting a total expenditure of $1.05M for FY21. This would have us at 3.94% of FY20 revenue, which is well below the 5% statutory cap.
Denver International Airport (DEN) Fuel Flow
Due to the large impact fuel flowage at DEN has on the Division's finances, we track and forecast fuel flowage on a monthly basis to ensure revenue forecast accuracy.
Current Month Data
Flowage at DEN in March was 25.8M gallons. This was up 121% from February's 21.3M gallons, and down 12% from March 2020.
Next Month Data
The forecast for April flowage is 29.2M gallons which would be a increase of 377% from April 2020 which is when the first full effects of the Covid-19 pandemic started being felt by the industry.
*For future months, we show a forecast based on historical month over month trends*